De vraag van 200 miljard dollar: Het debat in Europa over het gebruik van bevroren Russische tegoeden voor Oekraïne

Author: Brian Haughton

What is REPO?

After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies formed the Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force (REPO), made up of the Group of Seven (G7), European Union (EU), and Australia. (Brookings)

In March of 2022, the European Commission established the “Freeze and Seize” task force to handle the freezing and seizure of EU-held Russian assets and implementation of EU level sanctions decided on by the Council of the European Union. Freeze and Seize comprises representatives from the European Commission, Europol (the EU’s body for policing cooperation), Eurojust (the EU’s body for investigation and prosecution of cross-border crimes), and national contacts from each member state. (European Commission)

Frozen Russian assets

Around $280 to $330 billion in Russian sovereign assets have been seized and frozen from across the REPO framework. Belgian financial securities depository Euroclear manages about $200 billion of those assets, roughly 90% of the total held in Europe. France holds the majority of the remaining 10%. Assets are also frozen in Japan amounting to about $50 billion. For comparison, the United States holds about $5 billion. (Brookings; AP)

By 2024 most of the debt securities matured into cash held in Belgium, which Euroclear put into money markets. Of the roughly $7 billion in accrued interest generated in 2024, the Belgian government collected about 25%, which it committed to sending to Ukraine. (Brookings) In May 2024, the Council of the European Union required the rest of the interest go to Ukraine. (Consilium of the European Union)

What’s Europe’s plan for supporting Ukraine?

The IMF estimates that Ukraine will require 135 billion euros ($161 billion) for its financial and military needs over the two-year period of 2026-2027. This funding is needed to allow Ukraine to maintain public services and support its defense efforts. (Kyiv Post)

According to a plan presented by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 3, 2025, the EU plans to cover two thirds of this sum: 90 billion euros. The remaining third (45 billion euros) is intended to come from other international partners. (AP)

а. Fund Ukraine via a ‘reparations loan’ – using the frozen assets as collatera

© European Union, 2025, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (audiovisual.ec.)

This plan – proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the Commission’s ‘Plan A’ – involves issuing a loan to Ukraine backed by the frozen Russian assets as collateral. Euroclear would be required to invest the frozen assets in a contract with the EU, with the EU lending the funds on to Ukraine. Ukraine would only be required to repay the loan after it receives reparations from Russia in compensation for damages caused by Russia’s invasion. (Reuters)

Belgium holds the majority of the frozen assets, and its consent is required to implement this plan. However, Belgium has expressed its opposition (Euronews):

The proposal, which has no precedent in modern history, has been met with serious reservations by both the Belgian government and Euroclear from the start.

Euroclear also worries that it would lack the necessary liquidity to honour its claim with the Russian Central Bank if the sanctions were lifted prematurely and member states failed to raise the €185 billion in time.

The Belgian authorities have also said they fear Russia will demand their assets be returned if they sue in court and win, leaving a gap in Belgium’s treasury equal to the size of the annual federal budget. Belgium has even suggested it could bankrupt the country.

The Council of the European Union passed a Regulation on 13 December freezing Russian assets indefinitely, using Article 122 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which is used in cases of “exceptional circumstances” outside of a member state’s control. The EU has promised Belgium protection (Consilium of the European Union) but Belgian leadership has continued to reject both the reparations loan plan and the use of Article 122. 

“This is money from a country with which we are not at war,” [Belgian Prime Minister] De Wever said, speaking to reporters at the Belgian parliament. “It would be like breaking into an embassy, taking out all the furniture, and selling it.” (Euronews)

 b.Raising the funds through international borrowing instead

© European Union, 2025, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (newsroom.consilium.europa.eu)

Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever has proposed that Ukraine’s allies handle the cost of funding Ukraine on their own, and offered the taking on of debt as an alternative solution. (Euronews)

“If Europe wants to create money, it can create money. This is called debt. But, of course, this is also a very sensitive topic,” De Wever said at the end of the summit.

“The big advantage of debt is that you know it. You know how much it is, you know how long you will bear it, you know exactly who’s responsible for it,” he went on.

c. Not funding Ukraine at all

© European Union, 2025, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (newsroom.consilium.europa.eu)

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has rejected the reparations loan plan and the taking on of more debt, and has refused to support Ukraine outright. (Reuters)

“I refuse to allow Slovakia to take part in any financial scheme aimed at helping Ukraine manage the war and military spending.”

Hongarije heeft het plan om meer schulden aan te gaan afgewezen. (Politico) Hongarije klaagt ook de Raad van de Europese Unie aan voor het negeren van zijn veto tijdens de stemming om rente uit bevroren Russische tegoeden naar Oekraïne te sturen, op basis van het feit dat Hongarije geen "bijdragend land" is aan de Europese Vredesfaciliteit, die de overdracht regelt. (Hongarije tegen Raad en Europese Vredesfaciliteit)

Europese burgers zijn de sleutel tot het vrijgeven van fondsen

De Europese Raad (een andere instelling dan de Raad van de Europese Unie), die bestaat uit de staatshoofden van alle lidstaten van de Europese Unie, komt op 18 en 19 december bijeen en de lening voor herstelbetalingen staat bovenaan de agenda. Dit betekent dat het tonen van het belang van het overdragen van bevroren Russische tegoeden aan Oekraïne aan binnenlandse regeringen de beste manier is om dit resultaat op korte termijn te beïnvloeden. De Europese Unie is voorstander van het plan voor een herstellingslening, maar een handvol lidstaten (België, Slowakije en Hongarije) zou het plan in de weg kunnen staan. Als het plan niet wordt aangenomen, zal Oekraïne moeite hebben om zijn defensie voor 2026 en 2027 te financieren en zal Europa kwetsbaar zijn.

 Burgers uit de hele Europese Unie kunnen hun stem laten horen via verkiezingen (Hongarije en Slowakije hebben elk verkiezingen in 2026 of 2027) en regeringen kiezen die de betrokkenheid van de EU bij Oekraïne zullen versterken, ongeacht de uitkomst van de bijeenkomst van de Europese Raad in december.

Conclusie

Discussies tijdens de top van de Europese Raad over 18 en 19 december zal worden gedomineerd door de kwestie van de herstellingslening - of meer specifiek, het oplossen van het Belgische verzet daartegen. Als de kwestie tijdens de top niet wordt opgelost, kan de Europese Commissie overwegen Oekraïne voor 2026-2027 te financieren met behulp van het Belgische gezamenlijke schuldvoorstel. Aangezien België de meerderheid van de bevroren tegoeden in handen heeft, kunnen er geen acties met betrekking tot de tegoeden worden ondernomen zonder de toestemming van België. Hongarije en Slowakije kunnen ook voor problemen zorgen, vooral als de EU hun veto's verder wil omzeilen.

Ongeacht de resultaten van het besluit van de Europese Raad in december, blijft het van het grootste belang dat de Europeanen geïnformeerd en betrokken blijven. Om hun grenzen en de veiligheid van hun bevolking te garanderen, heeft Oekraïne gewone Europeanen nodig die luidkeels van hun regeringen eisen dat ze meer doen om Oekraïne te steunen. Doe vandaag nog mee door aanmelden bij EAU om je aan te sluiten bij het team van gepassioneerde pleitbezorgers in je eigen land. Maak deel uit van de geschiedenis, sluit je aan bij de oproep tot actie van deze generatie. Europese actie voor Oekraïne.